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If you read Making a quick flip: Tips on which players to target for short-term investments and Tips for picking the right players to invest in over the long-term, then you have a better idea of which baseball players have a higher chance of yielding a positive net value.
We want to give you five more in-depth pieces of information to consider that might narrow down your search even further as to which card you want to purchase next. Here they are in no particular order.
- Prospect pedigree – Players who have consistently ranked as one of the top prospects will always be more highly valued by collectors. They will also have more room for error if they struggle early on in their careers.
- Good and bad luck – Did a player have a down year or did they come out of nowhere to surprise everyone? It’s possible that luck played a factor in their final stat line. If you know how to use stats like BABIP, it will help you to find buy low opportunities.
- Know your injuries – When a player suffers a major injury, their card values usually go down (see Trevor Story and Kyle Schwarber).If you like taking risks, this can represent a nice buy low opportunity. However, the success rate will vary depending on the injury.It is estimated that 85% of pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery will have a successful recovery, but you should be more worried though if a pitcher suffered a torn labrum.
- High-profile franchise – Players who play for a high-profile franchise (see Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) tend to be more valued. If the player has a high potential and the price point makes sense, target those players if they play for the teams aforementioned.
- Position – Does the player provide a high offensive production at a premium position? Do they have the defensive chops to stay at that position?If a player can provide middle of the order production from the 2B, SS, CF or C position, it usually bodes well for their valuation. However, don’t invest thinking you will get a 25 HR per season middle infielder when scouts are predicting that his long term position is 1B.Investing in a corner outfielder or a 1B is fine, but know what you are getting.